You're always wrong (this is a good thing)

2nd August 2009

Things are always better or worse than you think.

Right now you're either being optimistic or pessimistic (don't say you're realistic. That just means you're wrong but you think you're right). What's your bias right now? Reality is almost certainly a bit further the other way.

I remind myself of this when I'm pissed off. If I know I'm in a bad state, I know that reality is virtually guaranteed to be better than I think. If I'm in a brilliant mood I look twice as hard for the downside I'm probably missing.

The corollary is optimism has a positive effect, even when it's wrong. As long as I'm aiming for the right stuff, I almost certainly benefit. But being negative is nearly always self defeating. So be wrong, just be optimistic about it.